Guessing Strategy and Probability Tables

Do not guess randomly!

Because the LSAT does not assess a scoring penalty for incorrect answer choices, you should always guess on every question that you cannot complete during the allotted time. However, because some answer choices are historically more likely to occur than others, you should not guess randomly. The following tables summarize which answer choices have occurred most frequently over the years.

LSAT Answer Choice Probabilities

A# 901 498 438 1837 A% 18.8% 19.5% 19.8% 19.2%   B# 996 540 456 1992 B% 20.7% 21.1% 20.6% 20.8%   C# 975 503 433 1911 C% 20.3% 19.7% 19.6% 20.0%   D# 1021 544 440 2005 D% 21.3% 21.3% 19.9% 21.0%   E# 908 473 444 1825 E% 18.9% 18.5% 20.1% 19.1%   Total # 4801 2558 2211 9570 LR RC LG TOTAL

All Answer Choices June 1991 - November 2019*

The table above documents the frequency with which each answer choice appeared as a percentage of all LSAT answer choices between June 1991 and November 2019 inclusive. If history holds, you would typically be best served on the test as a whole by always guessing answer choice (D). Do not choose random answer choices; do not put in a pattern such as A-B-C-D-E etcetera. Although guessing answer choice (D) does not guarantee you will get the questions correct, statistically speaking guessing answer choice (D) gives you a slightly better chance of answering correctly than guessing randomly.

Last Five Answer Choices Per Section June 1991 - November 2019*

A# 143 78 106 327 A% 15.1% 16.4% 22.3% 17.2%   B# 185 109 97 391 B% 19.5% 22.9% 20.4% 20.6%   C# 188 87 91 366 C% 19.8% 18.3% 19.2% 19.3%   D# 213 106 91 410 D% 22.4% 22.3% 19.2% 21.6%   E# 221 95 90 406 E% 23.3% 20.0% 18.9% 21.4%   Total # 950 475 475 1900 LR RC LG TOTAL

These statistics do not include any unreleased LSAT administrations.

As the second table indicates, if you cannot finish the final questions in a section, in the Logical Reasoning section you should always guess answer choice (E). In the Reading Comprehension section you should always guess answer choice (B), and in the Logic Games section you should guess (A). This is especially the case because the answers at the end of sections are not independent of each other.

Please keep in mind that the strategies discussed above hold only for pure guessing, and are based on past answer choice frequencies. If you are attempting to choose between two answer choices, do not choose solely on the basis of statistics alone!

On a related note, if you are a strong test taker who correctly answers most questions but occasionally does not finish a section, quickly review the answer choices you have previously selected and use the answer that appears least as your guessing answer choice. For example, if you have completed twenty questions in a section, and your answer sheet contains a majority of (A)s, (B)s, (C)s, and (E)s, guess answer choice (D) for all of the remaining questions to get the percentage of each response as close to 20% as possible.